Re: (OT) They're not all crazy in Europe

On 4/30/25 09:35, -hh wrote:

On 4/20/25 01:02, rbowman wrote:

On Sat, 19 Apr 2025 19:54:55 -0500, -hh wrote:
>

chrisv <chrisv@nospam.invalid> wrote:

rbowman wrote:
>

-hh wrote:

>
First one was a pandemic itself, which killed 1.2 million Americans.
This generated far more submissions by health professionals than a
normal or bad flu season/year.

>
Far less than the 2% that many (such as yourself, IIRC) predicted, and
nearly all of them where very old and sick already.

>
I’ll check on if it was a prediction, or just the topical estimate of
worst case.

>
https://www.reuters...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/...

 I've not had COLA posts cited in major media...at least that I know of.
 

A popular Monday morning quarterback ploy when you've fucked the dog
royally is 'Oh no, that wasn't a prediction, it was a worse case
scenario.'

 Which is why I want to go read the archives to see precisely what I did say back in 2020, including any/all caveats.
 I've just gotten back to my desktop today, but you're free to go search through Google Groups from back then too & provide URL cites to help me.

How's your search going?
I did find this, which seems to align with chrisv's "2%" bit above:
[quote]
Interactive timeline chart can be found here:
< https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#how-did-confirmed-deaths-and-cases-change-over-time>
TL;DR: USA peaked at 6%; had since declined to 2%....
...concern is if it will peak again as medical facilities get overwhelmed again.
[/quote]
<https://groups.google.com/g/comp.os.linux.advocacy/c/qkwJwPssUuE/m/BnFquXMeBAAJ>
That's not a prediction, but was a report on actuals.
Similarly, much earlier (March 2020) thread:
[quote]
On Monday, March 16, 2020 at 1:14:33 PM UTC-4, chrisv wrote:
 > -hh wrote:
 >
 >  ><https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics=/>
 > >
 > >From it, the age-based death rates:
 > >
 > >80+ years old.. 14.8%
 > >70-79 years old 8.0%
 > >60-69 years old 3.6%
 > >50-59 years old 1.3%
 > >40-49 years old 0.4%
 > >10-39 years old 0.2%
 > >
 > >Using the above, consider how many older members of one's own
 > >family are in these higher risk Age groups: 50+, 60+, 70+ ...
 > >
 > >Ditto for the people you work with, know through church,
 > >friends, neighbors, etc. Its not all that hard for a
 > >parent to quickly count 200-300 folks that they know of
 > >comparable (and typically older) age. For example, if you
 > >know just 25-30 people in their 60s, because their mortality
 > >rate is 3.6%, that means one death for each ~27 you know.
 >
 > I'm in my 50's, but don't know many people who are significantly
 > older. One brother, in his 60's, and that's about it.
My siblings are all older and 60+; its probably why I've
generally related to older (music and) people. It does seem
that a good number of old classmates & friends are starting to
retire, or at least hit their 60th birthday milestone. Another
lump are some longtime friends from the BITNET era, many of
which (if they're still kicking) are 70+. Things like church
congregations can get modeled by using the applicable subgroups.
 > Of course, the mortality rates, above, are for those who
 > actually get the coronavirus, and not everyone will...
Sure, and estimates vary pretty widely; the rates I've seen
in print have been as high as 80%, although appear to more
often be in the "40% to 70% range" as per the below cite:
<https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/>
Keeping in mind that the strategy of interventions such
as social separation, while is predominantly to slow the
near-term rate (to prevent healthcare from being overwhelmed),
will probably reduce overall exposure rates as well.
But it should run generally higher in more connected societies,
so its hard to say just where it will finally shake out after
~2 years. Personally, I don't think that a 50%-66% rate is
at all unrealistic for the USA. That would suggest that the
rate for age 60-69 would go from "1 in 27" to "1 in 40".
[/quote]
<https://groups.google.com/g/comp.os.linux.advocacy/c/C40pel_Xg6o/m/hfyi2ccbAgAJ>
..which is also a report on actual case mortality rates.
And we can see the much longer longitudinal now here:, for Sept 2020 through May 2023, when the US apparently stopped providing this data. I'm not sure if there's a grand total average, but the TL;DR is that there were many weeks above 1%, multiple weeks above 2%, and even a 3.5% peak which IMO might be a data reporting anomaly:
<https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#how-did-confirmed-deaths-and-cases-change-over-time>
The only prediction from me in the above was for ages 60-69 and it was an expectation that the eventual mortality rate for this age group was likely to decline from current.
-hh