Re: OT ; Re: The joy of FORTRAN

On Thu, 3 Oct 2024, Peter Flass wrote:

Lawrence D'Oliveiro <ldo@nz.invalid> wrote:

On Thu, 03 Oct 2024 23:55:51 GMT, Charlie Gibbs wrote:
>

Thomas Malthus figured this out over 200 years ago.

>
He was wrong, though. Human ingenuity (i.e. science and technology) kept
things going long after he thought they would fall apart.
>

>
Population in developed countries is now declining. Europe, US and Canada,
Japan, even China. Hucksters are now complaining about this, as they have
fewer people to peddle their junk to.
>

I think these are two strong arguments against any population-doom scenarios that are often written about by climate-hysterics.
Malthus was obviously wrong, and many people for the past 200 years have been wrong about how many people this planet can support.
Science has grown that nr (nr of people the planet can support) enormously over time, and will continue to do so.
And, it is a known trend (but not a law of nature) that when a society "matures" has social security etc. birth numbers drop. On the other side of the spectrum, when a society "hardens" and brings with it enormous competition, requirements and demands on the young, by the old, birthrates also plummet (see china).
So I think Hans Roslings prediction was that we'll stabilize on around 12-14 billion or so. But most here will probably get to see if he was right or not by themselves.
You can also throw in the joker of exploiting space, sea bottoms etc. for resources as well, but that's many years into the future, so usually I'm ridiculed for mentioning this, but as a techno-optimist I am convinced this will happen.