Re: "DeepSeek" - China AI App Shakes Up Tech Markets

On Thu, 30 Jan 2025, Lars Poulsen wrote:

On 2025-01-30, The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> wrote:

...   I have in my portfolio anything that is *managed by someone else*,
that has shown consistent growth over the last few years.

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On 30/01/2025 13:44, Lars Poulsen wrote:

TNP, what do you mean by "managed by someone else"?
Not managed by you? Not managed by an investor-appointed board?

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On 2025-01-30, The Natural Philosopher <tnp@invalid.invalid> wrote:

I mean these days I invest in managed funds, not stocks shares and bonds
directly.

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My research says that index funds on the whole perform on a par with
most managed funds. Which I learned from Warren Buffett many years ago.

This is the truth! 99% of the people should do this. If you enjoy the challenge of managing your own investment by all means do so, but be aware that you are at a high risk of not performing as well as the index.
I realize that that is what I risk, but I enjoy it, and my strategy has made the portfolio reach a respectable size, so I will hold fast to my strategy regardless.

If you were a funds manager who could reliably beat the market, wouldn't
you spend your time managing your own investments rather than thos of
other people?

This is one thing you should look at. How much of his own money does the fund manager have invested in his own fund. If 0, avoid the fund. If several years worth of salary or more, it is a good sign!
Superstar fundmanagers have a _lot_ of money invested in their own funds. One of swedens richer men, and fund superstar Christer Gardell has most of his fortune invested in his fund mgmt companys funds.

The only "individual stock" I hold is Berkshire Hathaway, but that is
really more of an exchange traded managed investment fund. And it has
done slightly better than SP500, butt not by a lot, and it probably will
get worse than that once Warren retires or dies.

This is exactly what I would worry about as well as the size. As the size increases the return will get closer to the market at large. Once Warren is not there, they'll lose the Warren effect as well, and I am certain the one who takes over will not perform better. Enjoy it while it lasts!

Curiously physical gold is over time a very good hedge against inflation.
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£10,000 purchased by someone I know in 2005 seems to be worth about
£80,000 now...

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That's 11% annual yield. Good, but nbot amazing.

What's the stock market the same time? My bet would be 8% to 12%.
Checked it: https://dqydj.com/nasdaq-return-calculator/
12.983% nominal return. Better than gold, but higher variability.