Re: Lies of P, Roboquest - First Thoughts

On Mon, 30 Sep 2024 08:50:52 +0100, JAB <noway@nochance.com> wrote:

On 29/09/2024 15:36, Spalls Hurgenson wrote:

But so long as they still chase the dream of trying to unseat Valve
from its throne but are only offering a half-assed client, they're
going to just have to accept that the products released on Steam are
going to be better than the same games released on EGS.

>
I find it strange that Epic just don't seem to have realised that all
they've done is spend a lot of money giving people free games with not a
lot in return besides look at our numbers. Then again it could just be a
case of admitting that the strategy needs an overhaul also means
admitting that the higher ups who made it ballsed up with their plan for
world dominance.

I'm not sure they haven't realized this. Past financial reports have
stated that the EGS has not been growing (or becoming profitable) at
the expected rate. IIRC, the initial expectation was that EGS would
start becoming profitable in 2023, then it was pushed to 2024, and
later 2027! (It might not even reach that). Yet they still persist
with the strategy.

I don't think it's simple obstinance or even sunk cost fallacy. Those
same reports _do_ indicate that EGS is still growing its population
base. And while those numbers may not translate directly towards
becoming profitable, they are a good step towards that goal. There's
also the Fortnite factor: it's a primary revenue generator for the
company. The freebies might not attract non-Fortnite players to buy
from EGS, but they are probably quite effective in getting Fortnite
fans back week after week... and those players are proven
revenue-sources. Also, it's not really clear how much the freebies
really _cost_ Epic. In many cases, I'd wager Epic isn't paying a cent;
they get the developers to put up their games for free as a form of
exposure (almost certainly, when Epic does pay, it's a flat rate
rather than paying per free game).

And the potential of this strategy is immense; Steam reportedly rakes
in $8+ billion USD in sales; with Steam's 30% cut, that's over $2
billion that Valve takes in each year, at very little risk and
relatively little cost. That's an incredibly attractive prize and -at
least for now- Epic has the funding to chase after it.

That said, Epic has decided to cut back on funding exclusives, since
apparently it isn't as successful a program as they'd hoped. It's also
quite possible that Epic is working in the background in revamping
their client. Although even that is a difficult path to tread, since
they can't change things to radically lest they offend the part of
their current user base that DOES actually buy stuff from them chasing
after everyone who doesn't.

Unfortunately, we've only limited information about what's going on in
Epic. All we mostly have is the snapshots from its annual financial
reports and some contentless marketing speak from Epic's mouthpieces.
It would be great if Epic employees spilled the beans about the
company's inner workings. Until then, all we can do is hypothesize
based on what little we do know.

But I think that while Epic is disappointed in EGS' speed of uptake,
they don't seem particularly worried about it... yet. The potential
profits remain tantilizingly just out of reach, and the company
remains strong enough that they can dangle out after it for some time
to come.

IMHO. YMMV. OTLAA.