Re: Aucune mention d'une accélération du réchauffement dans le résumé technique de l'AR6 du groupe WG1 du GIEC

Le 17/05/2022 à 14:52, PaulAubrin a écrit :

Le 17/05/2022 à 13:48, Longeville a écrit :

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C'est faux encore une fois !!

 Bah non.

Bah si !

Le SPM n'est pas le résumé du groupe scientifique (le WG1). Le WG1 est scientifique, le SPM est "politique".
 

Le SPM s'adresse aux décideurs en leur fournissant le résumé des rapports. Et dans ces rapports, figure l'accélération du RCA.
Sinon, voici quelques extraits du WG1 qui explique parfaitement l'accélération du réchauffement.
Observed global warming to date:
A combination of improved observational records and a series of very warm years since AR5 have resulted in a substantial increase in the estimated level of global warming to date. The contribution of changes in observational understanding alone between AR5 and AR6 leads
to an increase of about 0.1°C in the estimated warming since
1850–1900. For the decade 2011–2020, the increase in global
surface temperature since 1850–1900 is assessed to be 1.09
[0.95 to 1.20] °C.11 Estimates of crossing times of global warming
levels and estimates of remaining carbon budgets are updated
accordingly. (Section TS.1.2, Cross-Section Box TS.1)
"Paleoclimate evidence:
The AR5 assessed that many of the changes observed since the 1950s are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Updated paleoclimate evidence strengthens this assessment; over the past several decades, key indicators of the climate system are increasingly at levels unseen in centuries to millennia and are changing at rates unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years. (Box TS.2, Section TS.2)
Updated assessment of recent warming:
The AR5 reported a smaller rate of increase in global mean surface temperature over the period 1998–2012 than the rate calculated since 1951. Based on updated observational datasets showing a larger trend over 1998–2012 than earlier estimates, there is now high confidence
that the observed 1998–2012 global surface temperature trend
is consistent with ensembles of climate model simulations,
and there is now very high confidence that the slower rate of
global surface temperature increase observed over this period
was a temporary event induced by internal and naturally forced
variability that partly offset the anthropogenic surface warming
trend over this period, while heat uptake continued to increase
in the ocean. Since 2012, strong warming has been observed,
with the past five years (2016–2020) being the hottest fiveyear
period in the instrumental record since at least 1850 (high
confidence). (Section TS.1.2, Cross-Section Box TS.1)"