Re: jobs apocalypse

On Thu, 18 Jul 2024, JAB wrote:

On Thu, 18 Jul 2024 12:02:39 +0200, D <nospam@example.net> wrote:
>

UBI was tried with disastrous results in the
soviet union, so it is disproven both financially and historically.

>
One example does not 'prove' the concept is fruitless.

Actually in science, all it takes is one example to disprove a theory. Economics is not a science perhaps? ;)

I believe  Elon is living in a Sci-Fi or bullshit world when he says,
"here will come a point where no job is needed -you can have a job if
you want one for personal satisfaction - but AI will do everything."
===========================

I believe we could reach that, but that would take 100s of years if not more. But it is a fun example to calculate and speculate around. We would need massive technological breakthroughs in power generation, power storage, robotics, automation and various kinds of AI. At least! I also wonder if we also perhaps need to open up new areas as well for raw materials such as deep sea mining and asteroid mining?

This study gives a sense of what could happen, but I believe their
finding that "additional jobs in the service sector" came about is
bumstear thinking as more/more robots are "employed."
>
30/2017
>
German Robots - The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers
...
...
Conclusion
>
In this paper we have studied the impact of rising robot exposure on
the careers of individual manufacturing workers, and the equilibrium
impact across industries and local labor markets in Germany. Unlike in
the United States, we find no evidence that robots have been major job
killers so far. They do no not cause overall job losses, but they do
affect the composition of aggregate employment in Germany. We estimate
that every robot destroys roughly two manufacturing jobs. This implies
a total loss of 275,000 manufacturing jobs in the period 1994-2014,
which accounts for roughly 23% of the overall decline during those two
decades. But this loss was fully offset (or even slightly
over-compensated) by additional jobs in the service sector.
>
https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2017/dp3017.pdf
>

Yep, fully offset. Ice delivery was replaced with other jobs when refrigerators came. Also note that todays economy is global, so to give an accurate picture, you cannot just look at one country.
I think Johan Norber writes about this in his The Capitalist Manifesto, and he also provides his sources as well, although no one I have ever chatted with on usenet has ever read the book.
On the other hand I do not blame them. I have never read Das Kapital or current marxist theory either, since I've read other texts which in my opinion thoroughly disprove it.