Re: "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"

On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 17:19:14 -0000 (UTC), jdnicoll@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

In article <608sqjle4440ka7d2tnb3b8n1hjam30skt@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person  <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <nospam@example.net> wrote:
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On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
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On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <nospam@example.net> wrote:
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On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
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On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:

"NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
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"Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space

Telescope to

study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less

than eight

years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
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“The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the

asteroid will

most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the

probability of a

crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
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Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
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I don't see any wolf crying.  They are refining their data to

improve their

accuracy.

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This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.

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I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
space rock hitting an ocean can do.
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I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters
outside new york.
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Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a
couple of years advance warning we're good to go.

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First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
/Deep Impact/.
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Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".
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Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.
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But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
the film exaggerated things a bit.

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My numbers were for a dinky 8 MT impact, whereas Deep Impact involved
a rock the size of Everest. Whole different game.

That's the one that hit the ocean, not the much larger planet-killer
to come, right?

So, what do the formulae show for the /Deep Impact/ ocean strike?

Although in retrospect, I'd expect more re-entering ejecta than DI
featured. The KT impact may have left little bits of charred dino-
saur on the Moon.

--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"