Re: the future long term financial apocalypse of the USA

On Tue, 14 May 2024 16:00:11 -0000 (UTC), jdnicoll@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

In article <s8v64j1kojpfbumdqvfch8c5dt6pv5hu60@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person  <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:

On Mon, 13 May 2024 12:29:17 -0700, The Horny Goat <lcraver@home.ca>
wrote:
>

On Sat, 11 May 2024 08:53:23 -0700, Paul S Person
<psperson@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>

You do realize that, when Social Security started, the average life
expectancy was such that those eligible for it were "locked into life
long slavery to the state", right?
>

When Otto von Bismarck invented the old age pension the average male
life expectancy was 69 so on average pensioners lasted 4 years.
Obviously life expectancy is much longer now.

>
Exactly. As health and longevity improve, retirement age must rise to
keep the finances under control. Which means people must work longer.
Which is very ... tiresome.

>
This is a solved problem. Expected American lifespan dropped from 79
in 2019 to 76 in 2021. Since trends can be extended without limit,
it follows that US lifespans will keep dropping by a year per year
until 2098, when it reach be zero.

Huh. I'm 77. I've exceeded expectations!

More seriously, when I retired OPM was kind enough to compute the
pro-rated refund of the amount I contributed to the pension. This is
because the money I contributed was taxed going in and so not taxable
coming out.

That is, each month a certain amount of what I get is not taxable.
Using that amount and the total contribution it is easy to compute
what I presume to have been my life expectancy, per OPM, back when I
retired (nearly 20 years ago now): 84.5. Not quite a 1yr/yr drop over
nearly 20 years. But perhaps the rate of decrease is accelerating ...
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"