Re: xkcd: Neighbor-Source Heat Pump

On 6/11/2025 11:13 AM, Paul S Person wrote:

On Tue, 10 Jun 2025 21:29:08 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
wrote:
 

Paul S Person <psperson@old.netcom.invalid> writes:

On Sun, 08 Jun 2025 17:00:49 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)

>

I refer you to this informative article:
>
https://techxplore.com/news/2024-05-barriers-cold-climates-energy-poverty=
.html
>
Granted, this is from Southeast Michigan and is comparing costs with
natural gas.

>
I think a study of a handful of 60-year-old homes in one corner of
a northern state is not particularly indicative of a general trend.

 Of course you don't. It opposes your preferred narrative.
 

The actual study (although it is really a partially a meta-analysis
of other papers) is here:
>
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344924002933?via%3Dihub
>
The find the median payback is 24 years, including weatherization of the 60
year-old homes.  Unattractive to low-income homeowners, thus they
recommend government incentives to aid such homeowners.
>
However, the vast majority of homes, even in Michigan, likely
are either much newer (built after 1975) with better weatherization
or have been weatherized already and would likely benefit from
a heat pump system.

 Just keep denying the demonstrated reality.
 Alternately, find a similar study of the vast majority of homes.
 <snippo stuff>
 

In your particular case, the price of heating oil can be rather
volatile, peaking at $4.26 in 2022 (currently less than $2.00);
as a fundamentally limited resource, it won't remain that cheap
forever.
>
https://www.macrotrends.net/2479/heating-oil-prices-historical-chart-data

 I'm not sure what that is showing: is it just the price in New York
Harbor? Is that supposed to control prices throughout the country?
 Examining my records shows prices actually paid 2020-2025:
 01/21/20 3.489
11/23/20 3.079
05/04/21 3.639
02/12/22 4.589
12/01/22 5.639
05/08/23 5.079
03/01/24 5.079
01/02/25 4.939
 Keep in mind that the Pacific NW is a bit ... isolated ... oil-wise.
Basically, we have our own refineries and our costs (including
gasoline for cars) are always a bit higher than elsewhere. Still, the
peak in Dec 22 is consistent with the general trend your link shows.
 A few years back, /all/ the refineries were planning to close (for
various reasons) at the same time. One of our Senators suggested they
rethink this, as it would boost gas prices and might be viewed as a
form of illegal collusion.
 The irony here, of course, is that, to avoid being charged with
collusion, they had to collude to decide on a staggered schedule of
closures. Such is the gap between theory and reality.

In my lifetime, we have dropped from 250+ refineries in the USA in 1980 to the present 90.  Of course, I am talking about real refineries with 30 to 100 unit operations, not the little tea kettles.
Lynn