Re: [OT] Major drama in Ottawa today

On 2024-12-16 2:50 PM, shawn wrote:

On Mon, 16 Dec 2024 14:09:51 -0500, Rhino
<no_offline_contact@example.com> wrote:
 

The Finance Minister (and Deputy Prime Minister) Chrystia Freeland
resigned unexpected today, just hours before she was to give the annual
Fall Economic Statement (basically a mini-budget). This brings to NINE
the number of cabinet members who have resigned in recent months. (The
eighth, Sean Fraser, who was considered a rising star and potential
prime minister material, also resigned today, swearing that it was
because he wanted to spend more time with his young family.)
>
Freeland was told on Friday that she was going to lose her job as
Finance Minister in the imminent cabinet shuffle and apparently decided
that she couldn't endure that after her unswerving loyalty to Trudeau so
she left the cabinet altogether but says she's staying on as a caucus
member. At least one analyst feels sure that she'll be running for the
leadership of the Liberal party after Trudeau is gone.

  Which was given as a potential reason for why she resigned as it
separates her from Trudeau. Which may make it easier for her when/if
she runs for the leadership role as she won't be so easily painted
with any of Trudeau's failures.
 

She supported everything he did from the moment she got elected. I don't think disagreeing with him at this late date is going to do a lot to distance her from Trudeau. She is still very closely associated with Trudeau and his policies and I would expect voters to keep that in mind if she wins the leadership.

This puts Trudeau in a very difficult spot. There are leaks to the
effect that the deficit target of $40 billion was far exceeded and is
actually a bit over $60 billion which would raise a lot of anger in this
country and hurt the Liberals. Trudeau apparently wanted Freeland to
tell the country and, in effect, take the blame, but she chose a
different path. It is now an open question whether the Fall Economic
Statement will still be delivered today and, if so, who will deliver it.

 I get that may be the desire but you would think people would be smart
enough to realize that Freeland isn't putting her own plans in place.
The role is to implement what Trudeau wants which means the deficit is
his fault and yes, she would share in that failure to control the
deficit.
>

It turns out that someone else gave the Fall Economic Statement - I'm not clear who yet - and a new Finance Minister, another Trudeau loyalist named Dominic Leblanc, has been sworn in.
It's not clear yet who the media have chosen to blame for the bad economic news: they're too busy reacting to Freeland's resignation from cabinet and speculating on what Trudeau will do about his own future. The pundits are saying Trudeau can't survive this and will have to resign in the next day or two, which means he'd probably prorogue (suspend) Parliament for a few months so that the Liberals can choose a new leader. That would also prevent the opposition parties from having a no-confidence vote to force an election. But parliament is in session as I write this and things may go a different way.
In any case, parliament is set to break for Christmas on Wednesday which inevitably means weeks where they aren't in session - but probably not long enough for the Liberals to have a leisurely leadership race.

Several analysts have argued that Trudeau can't wiggle out of this. Some
are suggesting that this would be the perfect moment for the NDP, which
is propping up the Liberals, to join the other opposition parties in a
vote of non-confidence which would ensure an election.
>
That would make a WONDERFUL Christmas present for Canadians but I'm
skeptical it will happen. I think Trudeau is more likely to prorogue
(suspend parliament) for a few months to give himself some breathing
space to rebuild what he can. I hope I'm wrong and that he now FINALLY
understands that he is DONE. (The vast majority of Canadians despise him
AND his party.) Then he can step down and let the Liberals choose a new
leader to lead them into the next election. They'll still lose with a
new leader but maybe not QUITE as badly.

--
Rhino