Re: Food Prices

On 6/12/2025 3:31 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

 Amazing.  I didn't know that turbine tip speed destroyed generators.
Usually, the gearbox wears out before the generator.
 "Wind turbine gearboxes: When is 20 years not 20 years?"
<https://tamarindo.global/insight/analysis/wind-turbine-gearboxes-when-is-20-years-not-20-years/>
"So almost all gearboxes in a wind farm are likely to fail within 20
years."

I'm pretty skeptical about that site's claims.
"It is well-known that many wind turbine gearboxes have a design life of 20 years.
"However, it is also well-known that a great number of gearboxes don’t last for 20 years and fail prematurely. Why the discrepancy?
"The answer lies in the way that gear and bearing lives are defined. We can’t predict the exact date on which a component will fail, but we can estimate the probability that it will last for a given duration.
"A very simple calculation shows that, if we combine the expected life for every bearing in a drivetrain to calculate a ‘system level’ life, the probability of one or more bearings failing within 20 years is up to 93%. So almost all gearboxes in a wind farm are likely to fail within 20 years. It seems shocking, but isn’t far from reality."
They seem to be implying that each gear, bearing, shaft, etc. are individually designed for 20 year life, but that because there are always some premature failures, 93% will have _something_ fail sooner than 20 years.
ISTM that doesn't mean the wind turbine comes down. It means the failed bearing must be replaced, just like a car's failed wheel bearing, failed throwout bearing, etc. You don't junk a car at the first bearing failure.
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- Frank Krygowski