Re: Cycling editorial

On 6/6/2024 1:03 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Thu, 6 Jun 2024 07:37:31 -0400, Zen Cycle <funkmaster@hotmail.com>
wrote:
 

On 6/5/2024 9:31 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:

On Wed, 05 Jun 2024 23:15:26 GMT, Tom Kunich <cyclintom@yahoo.com>
wrote:
>

Your opinion of HP might very well be true. But because the market tracks inflation, today HP is worth 3 times what it was in 2019. This means that they have been holding their value. I hope you put some of your money in their stock.

>
In 2019, HP stock was worth about $20.  Today, it's worth about $35.
That's a net increase of  35 / 20 = 1.75  times in the past 5 years.
If HP was really "worth 3 times what it was in 2019", then it should
now be selling for $60/share.
>
>

>
What I _should_ have done was leave my Agilent shares alone. As I
mentioned previously, HP is a shell of its former self. When the Agilent
split happened, all my HP were converted to Agilent 1:1, IIRC the shares
were in the $25 range at the time. We weren't given a choice for the
options, but were asked of we wanted to keep owned-shares of HP or
convert them. Given my distaste for what the Fiorina regime did to HP, I
chose to convert. Finally, ~15 years after I had been laid off, I was in
a review with my financial planner and we noted the lackluster
performance of Agilent, so I sold it all and invested in a mutual fund.
>
Converting everything to agilent was a good move, selling it all
later....Bad move.
>
 From 2019 on, Agilent has been performing brilliantly, going from ~
$25/share when I sold to the mid 100's ($133 as of this message). HP is
still only in the $30 range. Given over 20 years of inflation I would
have lost money if I left any in HP. Still, the mutual fund is doing
well and I've made reasonable gains - well more than if I left it in HP,
but not as well as if I had left it in Agilent.

 Thanks for the details.  I don't want to tell my tale of stock market
woe.  I lost badly in the "black Monday" crash in 1987 and repeated
the mistake (to a lesser degree) with the dot-com bubble in 2000.  I
did well in the 1990's but stayed in the market too long.  Since then,
I've been risk averse and have avoided any investments in the stock
market.  Avoiding the stock market may soon turn into another mistake
as my savings are rapidly being eroded by inflation.  It's not a
pretty picture, but at least I have no debt and I have enough cash to
survive.

It's a guessing game for the vast majority of casual investors. In some cases little better than a casino.

 

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