Re: Montana: "Let's make stupidity mandatory!"

On 1/17/2025 1:57 PM, AMuzi wrote:

 
" The Earth can only support a finite number of humans...."
 
Logically, yes.
That limit is a much larger number than pessimists have predicted.
 
Imminent doom has been wrong repeatedly. Everything was supposed to
collapse at 4 billion, at 5 billion, at 6 billion, etc. Still waiting.
 
The Malthusians ignore human innovation.

>
I suppose we could read the specific scientific articles of the day to
see exactly what they said, as opposed to something like the blaring
headlines on the front pages of popular magazines. And I'm aware that
some ingenious breakthroughs (e.g. in food production) have acted as
Deus Ex Machina to at least temporarily save the day.
>
But I suspect those who feel "Everything Will Always Be Fine" were
interpreting warnings about (say) 6 billion as "... and then the world
will suddenly end!" More realistic people would be expecting a prolonged
and very messy gradual failure, probably with a slow initial buildup.
Which seems to be what we're seeing today.
>
We've recently set yet another record for "hottest year since record
keeping began." Those seem to keep coming. "Everything is fine!"
skeptics say, "Because I can still make a snowball!!"
>
But climate problems are certainly increasing. California wildfires,
Appalachian hurricanes, African droughts etc. are driven at least in
part by novel climate changes. That's evidence of a slow initial buildup.
>
I expect we'll gradually see more people demanding immigration
permission, or sneaking in without permission, as conditions worsen in
certain countries. We may see migration out of certain areas of the U.S.
as water becomes more and more scarce and expensive, except in certain
coastal areas, where it will become inconveniently abundant due to
rising sea levels. Like other changes, that won't be a sudden wall of
water inundating a city. Instead, it will be "Damn! The business
district is flooded _again_???" I suspect there will be economic
consequences, but they will be gradual enough to give "plausible
deniability" to the skeptics.
>
The bigger factors that _may_ give "I told you so" proof are, in my
mind, the Atlantic Ocean thermal circulation and the unlocking of
long-trapped arctic methane. Those seem likely to be "tipping point"
scenarios that will be relatively sudden, self enhancing and impossible
to reverse.
>
But I guess we'll see, if we live long enough.