Grocery Prices

As expected, the future is not good.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/fact-check-are-grocery-prices-really-down-under-trump/ar-AA1EMyWk?
On April 29, 2025, in an interview with ABC’s Terry Moran marking his first 100 days back in the Oval Office, Trump stated: “Look, since I came in, gasoline is down, groceries are down, egg prices are down — many things are down, just about everything.”
But with many Americans still feeling the pinch at the checkout line, it’s worth asking whether the numbers back him up or if inflation is simply cooling from earlier highs.
Current economic data contradicts Trump’s assertion. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), while prices for some specific items have decreased — fresh vegetable prices, for example, were 3.0% lower in March compared to March 2024 — the overall trend for grocery prices continues upward.
The USDA projects overall food prices to increase by 3.5% in 2025, with food-at-home prices (grocery store purchases) rising by 3.3%. This exceeds the historical average annual increase of 2.6% recorded from 2005 to 2024.
You’ll see substantial price hikes in specific food categories:
Beef prices are expected to jump 6.3% in 2025.
Egg prices, which Trump specifically mentioned as decreasing, are projected to surge by 54.6% in 2025, mainly due to ongoing avian flu outbreaks.
According to economist David Bieri of Virginia Tech University, as reported by ABC News, prices are still increasing, just at a slower pace. This distinction between easing inflation and actual price drops is key to understanding the current economic climate.
With food prices rising sharply in key categories, finding savings elsewhere becomes even more important — especially on everyday expenses beyond the grocery store. You can slash expenses on dining, travel, eyeglasses, prescriptions and more with AARP — Just $15/year with auto-renewal. Join now and save hundreds.
The impact of trade policies on consumer prices
Recent tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China have further complicated the price landscape. According to an April 15 report from The Budget Lab at Yale, these tariffs have increased consumer prices by approximately 3.0% in the short term.
For the average household, this translates to a potential $4,900 cost increase in 2025 if buying habits remain unchanged. Even if families switch to store brands or cheaper alternatives, they could still face a 1.6% price increase, costing about $2,600 more per household annually.