SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 2, 2024
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA
ARRL Headquarters was closed on November 29. So, this regular Friday bulletin
was moved to the following Monday (12/2).
Solar activity increased during the current reporting week, November 21-27.
Average daily sunspot number rose to 155.7, and average daily solar flux was
282.2.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -
November 28, 2024, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
"After the unexpected solar proton flare of 21 November, which took place
beyond the Sun's western limb, a rain of higher-energy protons hit the
Earth's atmosphere. This solar radiation storm had a greater impact at higher
latitudes in the southern hemisphere, where it caused a significant increase
in attenuation.
"Two days later, two new large sunspot groups appeared near the southeastern
limb of the Sun. These produced moderate eruptions daily, which is more or
less normal for the 11-year maximum. These are AR3905 and AR3906, which have
grown rapidly to a size where they can be observed with the naked eye. There
is a relatively small coronal hole near them that could be influencing the
solar wind enhancement.
"Following the eruption of a plasma filament near AR3901, a G2 class
geomagnetic storm is possible on November 28-29, when a CME is expected to
impact. However, around 1900 UT on November 28, when this information is
written as usual, nothing is still happening. We will see what happens next.
It is quite possible that the plasma cloud will only hit the Earth a little
and it is also not out of the question that it will miss the Earth
completely. So, any prediction at this point has a low probability of coming
true."
New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:
https://youtu.be/1P4sCwn8TZI [
https://youtu.be/1P4sCwn8TZI ]
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net [ mailto:
k7ra@arrl.net ] . When reporting observations, don't
forget to tell us which mode you were operating.
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
www.arrl.org/propagation [
http://www.arrl.org/propagation?utm_source=Informz&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ARRL] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at,
www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals [
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals ] . For an explanation of numbers
used in this bulletin, see
www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere [
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere ] .
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation ] . More good information
and tutorials on propagation are at
http://k9la.us [
http://k9la.us/ ] .
Also, check this article, "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002
QST.
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt [
https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt ]
Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are
at
www.arrl.org/bulletins [
http://arrl.org/bulletins ] .
Sunspot numbers for November 21 through 27, 2024 were 148, 170, 156, 164,
140, 163, and 141, with a mean of 155.7. 10.7 cm flux was 166.2, 179.1,
199.9, 202.7, 220.4, 222.3, and 225, with a mean of 202.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 8, 12, 8, 7, 11, 7, and 5, with a mean of 8.3.
Middle latitude A Index was 5, 10, 7, 7, 9, 6, and 3, with a mean of 6.7.
NNNN
/EX
ARRL(R) The National Association for Amateur Radio(R)
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ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA