Re: OT: Cracking Speech by JDV!

On 20/02/2025 14:15, Don Y wrote:

On 2/20/2025 6:50 AM, Liz Tuddenham wrote:

Don Y <blockedofcourse@foo.invalid> wrote:
>

[I had an argument, this morning, with a friend who frequents the
casinoes.  He was claiming that he was "due" for a win -- a BIG win!
He was absolutely clueless about the idea that the machines don't
remember his losses -- so, how could they be "ready" to reward him?]

>
As children we were paid pocket money to play fruit machines.  They were
owned by my grandfather's business and he needed to know what odds were
actually coming up, rather then the theoretical odds which might have
been miscalculated.

 Surprisingly, many people don't understand "odds" vs. "probabilities".
I was hired to make some modifications to a gaming machine and, as
a matter of course, "checked the math" on the "return" calculations
and discovered the stated "odds" were not being fairly implemented
in the code (and, the error was in the players' favor!).

Back in my youth I knew a few types of electro mechanical slot machines where the loneliness timeout changed the odds sufficiently in favour of a decent payout that I would play only after I had seen them unplayed for that time. Walking away immediately after winning is the key.

This meant that, at a very early age, we were all familiar with the
concepts of chance and had no illusions about it.  The result was that
none of us had the slightest inclination to start gambling.

 There must be SOME appeal to it as it is such a common exercise.
I think it allows people to THINK they can beat it (esp things
like sports betting).

There were one or two games that had a sufficient element of skill and judgement involved "Penny Falls" being the most common one that I could make a handsome profit on the 6 coins I started out with. I wouldn't play at all unless I was pretty sure I could win more by doing so.
Apparently called "Coin Pushers" in America I prefer the British name.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_pusher#History
The only problem was the sheer weight of 1" 1p copper coins (back in the good old days when currency was made of valuable non-ferrous metal).

Amusing to think that they are naive enough to think someone would
create a product that can be "beaten" -- given that such an
event would come at their expense!
 [Of course, there are many ways to "beat" a machine -- but this
is done by exploiting weaknesses in the design, not the algorithms]

Some had weaknesses in both. I only played machines where I knew there was a weakness. Modern all electronic ones are much harder to beat and I don't bother trying. Pub Quiz machines were another favourite target.
--
Martin Brown