Re: What Made My Day Today? :-)

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Sujet : Re: What Made My Day Today? :-)
De : physfitfreak (at) *nospam* gmail.com (Physfitfreak)
Groupes : sci.physics
Date : 26. May 2024, 23:31:49
Autres entêtes
Organisation : Modern Human
Message-ID : <v309o5$q6o2$1@solani.org>
References : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
User-Agent : Mozilla Thunderbird
Ok, ... The realities have begun to seep out in this strange struggle.
Looks like the incident with Iran's President and Foreign Minister has been a calculated one. They had caused the failure in seizing the opportunities offered by China to be part of their long-term future supplier of oil. China preferred the independent Iran over Saudi Arabia, but Raisi's administration proved to be unresponsive to China's efforts.
This was the biggest issue for this administration to deal with, because Iran's decision-making structure itself is divided over such long-term futures. About half of them, the traditional West-leaning thinkers (I'm going to call them Conservatives although that's not how they're named in Iran), think that Iran is safer with major relations with known and well-studied culprit superpowers than with the new inexperienced China. The other half, the risk-takers (I'll call them Progressives, again despite they being called in Iran quite differently), think exactly the opposite.
This administration began work _seemingly_ with the intention to satisfy the Progressives and people backing them. That's how they won the elections. All my folks in Iran, practically anyone I'm still in touch with, had changed side for that and voted for Raisi's admin exactly for the purpose of cutting ties with Nazis and Global Pests. But in action, this admin proved they were serving the Conservative side in Iran. Result is that China went to their second option, the Saudis, and began creating that "Oil City" (or whatever they call it) with them, and placed their remaining eggs as far as oil was concerned inside that basket. This admin _let_ the chance go.
When the Progressives realized that the chance was gone, they got rid of the culprits that had fooled them. Probably a tiny little bomb somewhere inside the helicopter where the pilots were. Too little to cause destruction of the helicopter, but enough to cause the pilots to lose the controls for a few seconds.
Conservatives aren't and weren't that fool to have decided to act that way regarding China's offer. Their logic is like, "Let's have Saudi Arabia test China, not Iran." This has two important advantages of course. It keeps Iran safe from unknown future behavior of China. And it provides several steps for Saudi Arabia to walk into that new pathway, _away_ from Nazis and Global Pests. So this type of thinking points to a quite _regional_ way of seeing the future, not a way just for Iran. It might be the correct view too. And they _did_ act according to that view also.
But Progressives want to leave Nazis and Global Pests behind and forever, with _any_ risk or even cost involved. They wanted to get what China had offered to Iran.
China's need for oil is huge. Russia alone, which has sold even the future 30 years of its oil to China, cannot and couldn't satisfy the demand. China needed more, and Iranian Progressives wanted to get the contracts for the remaining Chinese demands for oil. They did everything for that, even changed sides and voted for such promises. But Raisis team promised that and then slowly let it go to Saudis, not Iran. Essentially doing exactly what the Conservative camp wanted.
But what good would a little bomb the size of a cigarette lighter do? It looks, at first, to be doing nothing. But without doubt, it also talks to the Conservative side. "You fool the Iranians, you die!"
So next time, for important Iranian issues, Conservatives will know in advance that it would be their lives if they commit to such Machiavellian methods and intrigues.
You can do that all the time to people in the USA and Europe, and get away with them too. But in Iran, fooling people in such deceptive ways costs your life.
That's what happened.
Note that neither deals with China, nor complete loss of such opportunities, are totally over for Iran. In fact Iranians are now busy to place their own men in there to push Iran towards increasing relations with China. The big deal has now gone to Saudi Arabia, but the rest of opportunities are there to jump on.
Nazis and Global Pests have always been better for the Conservatives in Iran. This isn't anything new. They know each other very well. They have decades and decades of experience in that. Both sides. Nothing is totally unknown about them. But Iranians want more, cause they're not happy. It doesn't provide enough for them. And as you see, they'll literally kill you if you keep blocking them while saying otherwise.

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8 Apr 24 * Re: What Made My Day Today? :-)35Physfitfreak
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