"The reasons why the President-Elect, and President William Lai
Ching-te, should have phone call include:
1. Precedent: The precedent for such a call was set when President-Elect
Trump and President Tsai held their call. Much of China-Taiwan-U.S.
relations are based on precedent, such as the Taiwan president’s transit
stops in the United States or Taiwan’s participation in certain
international organizations such as APEC or the Asian Development Bank.
Similarly, Taiwan’s inability to participate in other international
organizations such as International Civil Aviation Organization,
Interpol, and the World Health Organization is also based on precedent,
and is unlikely to change.
2. China Does Not Determine Who the U.S. President-Elect Talks To: The
President-Elect can meet with, or speak to, whoever they wish to meet
with or speak to. Pressure from a foreign country such as China should
not be the determining factor for who the President-Elect meets with or
speaks to.
3. A Thank You for Taiwan: The President-Elect can thank Taiwan for its
friendship towards the United States. This includes the goods that
Taiwan imports from the United States, investment in the United States
by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and other Taiwan
companies, and of course, weapons sales by U.S. companies to Taiwan. As
President-Elect Trump posted on Twitter after his call with President
Tsai, “Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of
military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.”
4. President-Elect Can Send a Signal to China: A call between the
President-Elect and President Lai would send a signal to China that the
United States will continue to support Taiwan just as it has in recent
years. As the Taiwan government likes to say, relations between Taiwan
and the United States are “rock solid”. However, even if the
President-Elect has a call with President Lai, the President-Elect can
also repeat that after the inauguration, the new president will remain
committed to the United States’ longstanding One China policy, guided by
the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiqués, and the Six
Assurances.
5. President-Elect Can Send a Signal to Other Parts of the World: A call
between the President-Elect and President Lai is also valuable as a
signal to allies and enemies around the world about how the new
president will conduct foreign policy. It is likely that the
President-Elect will, during the transition period, meet with or speak
to representatives of allied countries such as the Canada, Japan, the
United Kingdom, and others. Including Taiwan in this group of countries
will send a signal about the importance the new President puts on
U.S.-Taiwan relations.
On the other hand, there are reasons why the call might not occur:
1. 2016 Call Was a “One Off” and Not a Precedent: Unfortunately for
Taiwan, during the transition period between Election Day in 2020 and
the inauguration on January 20, 2021, President-elect Joe Biden did not
have a call with President Tsai. What could have been a two-time
precedent instead, for now, is a “one off” event that occurred in 2016.
2. If Harris Wins, She’s Still the Incumbent Vice President: If Kamala
Harris is the President-Elect, she will still, simultaneously, be the
Vice President of the United States. Her boss, President Biden, might
oppose a call between Harris and President Lai. Although the Biden
Administration has taken many actions to show its support for Taiwan, it
still has certain “red lines” that it will not cross. Examples include
not agreeing to change the name of the Taipei Economic and Cultural
Representative Office to “Taiwan Representative Office”, and, unlike the
Trump Administration, not allowing a cabinet secretary to visit Taiwan.
A call between Vice President Harris and President Lai might similarly
be something that President Biden will not agree to.
3. Impact on Future U.S. – China Relations: The President-Elect might
want to begin U.S.-China relations on a positive note with hope for
future cooperation on various issues. For example, if Trump is elected,
he might want to resume trade negotiations with China. If Kamala Harris
is elected, she might want to cooperate with China on climate change,
reducing the amount of fentanyl “precursor” chemicals that are exported
to the United States from China, or other issues. For this reason, the
President-Elect might decline to have a call with President Lai.
4. Other Priorities: In the ten weeks between election day on November
5, 2024, and the inauguration on January 20, 2025, the President-Elect
will have a busy agenda. This incudes selecting staff for the new
government, and meeting with or speaking to leaders of close U.S.
allies. For the President-Elect, a call with President Lai might not be
a high priority.
5. Impact on China – Taiwan Relations: If the President-Elect has a call
with President Lai, there will certainly be a reaction from China. China
might respond by persuading one of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies
to switch diplomatic relations to China, the use of trade retaliation
measures, or military exercises near Taiwan. As we saw from China’s
large scale Joint Sword 2024A military exercise after President Lai’s
inauguration on May 20 of this year, or the recent Joint Sword 2024B
after President Lai’s national day speech, China’s military exercises
put enormous strain on Taiwan’s military, because the air force, army,
and navy must take appropriate measures to respond.
China – Taiwan relations are already at a low point, and a call between
the President-Elect and President Lai will only cause relations to
worsen. Perhaps the safest decision for Taiwan will be to tell the
President-Elect of the United States “Thank you, but no thank you.”"
https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20241019003396-262104?chdtv
Phone Call between the U.S. President-Elect and President Lai Ching-te?