my bet against the invasion of Ukraine.

if you ever do something like this,
My biggest regret within a day after making the bet was to not set a time limit.  It was just - will russia invade or not?
Maybe you understand, I was sitting there in a bad spot, it takes millennia to prove a not.  I think it was two weeks after the bet that Putin moved in and it was big news.
Not necessarily get it in writing, but set a reasonable framework on both sides of the bet.
I'm still curious why Putin flopped about like a goldfish on the border for such a long time before actually taking action.