Re: OT? Dairy flu

On 6/17/2024 4:48 PM, RonO wrote:

On 6/15/2024 2:22 PM, RonO wrote:
 Today several news sources are claiming that Redfield (ex CDC director) is predicting that there will be a bird flu pandemic.  What Redfield seems to be claiming is that a pandemic involving Avian influenza is inevitable (it will happen at some time).  Currently human influenza A is derived from avian influenza (that is what the "A" designation is for).  Humans likely got influenza A from an intermediate like pigs. Swine flu is influenza A.  The Dairy virus needs 5 mutations to make it as infectious to humans as the current human influenza A strains, but it could get those mutations via a coinfection with a human influenza A strain.  That is one of the reasons that we need to minimize human infections, and why they want to keep the dairy virus off of pig farms. Coinfection with a human or swine influenza could result in a deadly recombinant virus.
 The initial sequencing results of the first batch of dairy strains identified several lineages that had some of the mutations that would make them more infective to humans, but they seemed to be minor lineages, and no lineage had all the mutations needed.  The fact is that human infection would obviously select for variants that could more easily infect humans.  This is just another reason to identify all the infected herds and try to minimize human infections.
 https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/ex-cdc-director-bird-flu-pandemic/
 Ron Okimoto
 

Something seems to be screwy with the wastewater data.  The CDC is claiming one result and others are claiming something else.  The CDC data shows only "low" levels of influenza in the Michigan wastewater sites that they are testing, but Wastewater SCAN is claiming that 6 sites in Michigan have the highest levels of virus in the nation.
https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker/?charts=CmEQAUgAUgY3MWJhZTdSBmI5ZTMyMlIGNmMwNTdiUgZhNGUzOTRSBjVjZmVmZFIGMDY1MjgyWgdJbmZBX0g1cgoyMDI0LTA1LTIwcgoyMDI0LTA2LTEwigEGOGFlMmY2uAEl&selectedChartId=8ae2f6
CDC data:
https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/wastewater-surveillance/Flu-A-data.html#:~:text=Current%20wastewater%20monitoring%20methods%20detect,of%20the%20influenza%20A%20virus.
They have issues explaining the high wastewater levels in Michigan because several of the collection sites do not claim to have infected dairy herds.  It could mean that the infection has spread further in Michigan than they think.  Wastewater Scan is testing specifically for H5N1 while the CDC claims to be testing for influenza in general
https://www.freep.com/story/news/health/2024/06/17/bird-flu-michigan-wastewater/74047810007/
Ron Okimoto