Sujet : Oregon identifies 3 H5N1 infected farm workers that came from Washington
De : rokimoto557 (at) *nospam* gmail.com (RonO)
Groupes : talk.originsDate : 01. Nov 2024, 04:52:12
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Organisation : A noiseless patient Spider
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https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/oregon-identifies-3-human-cases-bird-flu-people-washington-state-2024-10-31/Oregon apparently tested some workers showing symptoms that had come from the infected poultry farms in Washington, and found 3 of them shedding the virus. This should tell just about anyone with a brain how states that did not get cattle were infected by the dairy virus. It should also tell both Oregon and Washington that they should be testing their dairies because poultry flocks in other states have been infected by proximity to infected dairy herds, likely due to sharing workers between dairy and poultry farms.
This example indicates that migrant workers have likely been taking the virus to other states for quite some time.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-begin-bulk-milk-testing-bird-flu-after-push-industry-2024-10-30/Yesterday the number of infected herds went to over 400. The mortality among infected cattle has increased, and the dairy industry is finally accepting bulk milk testing of dairies to identify infected herds. Apparently this is a request by the dairy industry, when the dairy industry has been against testing because they likely did not want to know how bad the situation was. It would have been bad for business. The article notes that the current situation of not testing was due to push back from the industry on efforts to get testing started by the USDA. In California the mortality and loss of production among survivors has negatively impacted milk production, and it will take a long time to build production up to what it was. The dairy industry cannot afford to let that continue.
The problem is that they are only going to do the testing in states that have known infected herds. They should be doing it in Washington and Oregon and all other states that have had poultry infected with the dairy virus, but that have not claimed infected herds like Florida that the FDA had identified as producing H5N1 infected dairy products back in May, and that have subsequently had poultry flocks come down with the dairy virus.
The CDC is still maintaining that the "danger" to the general population remains low. The danger is not to the low infection rate currently among dairy and poultry workers, but the possibility of those two mutations occurring in the H5 gene that would make the virus a human infective virus. Those 2 mutations are likely occurring multiple times in virus produced by a single infection in each cow, but the number of virus that infect other cows is very low compared to the number of virus produced by that infected cow. The real danger is infection in people where if those two mutations do occur they could more easily multiply in the infected individual out competing the non mutant counterparts. We are just stupidly lucky that the virus doesn't seem to be replicating in humans that well or those two mutations would have likely already occurred in an infected human and spread out of control by now. The CDC should ask Behe and Snokes how often that they expect the two mutations to occur in a virus if they do not have to occur at the same time during an infection. One could occur and the other could occur a few viral cell infections later. Thousands of cells could be producing the virus with the first mutation. Behe and Snokes found that a population of 100 million could routinely produce double neutral mutations in the same lineage, and RNA virus mutation rate is much higher than eukaryotic mutation rate.
Ron Okimoto