Re: California cases exploding with USDA assistance.

On 11/15/2024 6:43 AM, Kerr-Mudd, John wrote:

On Thu, 14 Nov 2024 14:27:33 -0600
RonO <rokimoto557@gmail.com> wrote:
 

On 11/13/2024 8:39 AM, RonO wrote:

On 11/9/2024 12:42 PM, RonO wrote:

On 11/6/2024 4:58 PM, RonO wrote:

On 11/4/2024 8:48 PM, RonO wrote:

On 11/4/2024 4:33 PM, RonO wrote:

[]
 

13 more herds have been added in California so the total on the USDA
list is now 292.
>

  It might be time to alert RFK(jr) before the next pandemic kicks in - oh dear.
 

RFK jr is one of the anti-vacciation nut jobs that doesn't trust the FDA.  The current stupidity with the dairy epidemic is exactly what could support his position.  Early on the CDC gave up on containing the dairy infection and trying to reduce human exposure.  Instead of contact tracing and identifying all the infected dairies in order to reduce dairy worker infections the CDC decided to let the virus evolve into a human pathogen.  Their claim was that they could catch the infection spreading through the human population early enough with their surveillance that they could contain the infection somewhere.  It was a stupid idea, but they have stuck with it until too many dairy workers were getting infected, and many had been infected but never tested.
They stockpiled vaccine to an H5 virus that they had already been considered for vaccine production.  It was tested and did produce neutralizing antibodies to the initial dairy virus, but the dairy virus has mutated since then, and they found that the Missouri human patient's virus was not effectively neutralized by the current antibodies.  They had to make a synthetic H5 gene with the two Missouri mutations in it in order to determine if the Missouri patient had produced neutralizing antibodies to the dairy virus.  The Missouri patient and their close contact that exhibited symptoms failed 2 out of the 3 antibody tests (positive for only one test).  This was a fail, but since they knew that the patient had been infected they admitted that the patient's close contact had also likely been infected, but neither individual had mounted an effective immune response against the virus.
It may be that they do not have a vaccine that will do much in terms of trying to contain the infection after it starts spreading in the human population.  The California dairy virus also has 2 or 3 (two different variants have been found) additional amino acid substitutions (they haven't said if any amino acid substitutions were shared with the Missouri variant, and have only given number of substitutions).
The failure of the stockpiled vaccine could be just what RFK jr needs to mess with the system.  If they do have to use it, and it isn't up to doing the job.
3 more infected California herds were added today.  The claim was that the bulk milk tank testing of all the dairies in California would start within 30 days a week ago, so all the new numbers are likely what they have found by contact tracing to other dairies.
My take that there hasn't been enough time since early October to infect so many herds (one estimate was that they would find 500 herds by the end of November, and they have found around 300 so far).  The infection has likely been festering in California for longer than the end of August.  They need to do a sequence evaluation to determine how it has been spreading through the Calfornia herds and for how long.
Ron Okimoto